RQ ANALYSIS

Early January - the CCAA referred through to 27th September.
Early February - through to 13th October.

The figures in the poll at the top come from the Rumour Queen's site. This poll gives an idea to relative numbers - not everyone reads or votes on her site, so it can only indicate proportions.

My basic analysis shows:
This month the CCAA referred 240 applications (according to RQ's poll). Therefore if they maintain this rate for the next batch they would complete the 24th October and then to 1st November with the second batch.

So I would be on the very cusp of making the second batch.

More complex is to predict when the batches will arrive. Usually they come once a month - but Chinese New Year is a major holiday that will probably delay proceedings by 1-2 weeks. So I think it will probably be about 10 weeks until the second batch - that would be mid April (the end of the Easter holidays). Never would I be more eager to go back to school! It will then take 6-8 weeks to complete paperwork - wait for an 'Invitation to Travel', get visas and book flights. So I think that I'll be in school until Whitsun or maybe slightly longer.

Waiting's hard, really hard and getting harder again.