UPDATE

I've tried ringing anyone I can think of to find out what's happening!

Dfes - will get back to me once they have answers to my questions, but it doesn't look like the paperwork has arrived there yet.

WAG - the contact is off sick, no one in the office can answer my questions - but someone maybe in on Wednesday who can help!! they're on strike tomorrow and in meetings on Wednesday morning, just my luck!

SW - I've tried the office and her mobile (2 hours ago), I've left messages on both phones, no contact yet. I've also tried her line manager, but he's not answering either!

BLAS (additional tracking service that I've paid for in China) I've emailed twice (first thing this morning and again at lunchtime), no answer yet - and they are on national leave from tomorrow for a week!! Typical.

Internationally no one has confirmed the cutoff yet with actual referral details, but many agencies are confirming the 1st as the cutoff date.

There is a small chance that even if the 1st is included (very likely at the moment) that I may not receive referral with this batch as I sent additional paperwork to China last summer. This paperwork means that my file would have to be pulled out to add it in - it may then have been put back in a later place in the queue.

So I'm still in the dark, confused and shaking. I didn't expect it to feel like this - I expected dizzy hysteria, maybe that's still to come?

NOVEMBER 1ST IS AN R5!!!!!!!!!

. . . THAT MEANS IT'S ALMOST DEFINITELY HAPPENING THIS MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

INFO

. . . info, need info, any litte snippet!

In agony here - any rumours welcomed!

REFERRALS ARE RUMOURED TO BE IN THE AIR

. . . and the cutoff is rumoured to be 1st Nov!

Could this be the month I get to see my baby's face? I don't want to get my hopes up again but it's difficult not to when your date is mentioned. I'm going to email China to try and find out.

THE EXTRA IMPORTANT STUFF - REFERRALS!

China are closed for a national holiday at the beginning of May, so although it hasn't been a month since the last batch of referrals, it is expected (at the moment, but it could well change!) that referrals will be posted before the CCAA closes for the break. So likely that they could arrive early next week!

Where do I stand? Currently I'm the sixth day in the queue, the front of the queue is the 27th, this is what I've gleaned from the 'net:
27th - very big application day,
28th - normal day,
29th - was a Saturday, very small
30th - was a Sunday, no applications
31st - another very big day
1st - (me!) small day

I no longer believe that I will be in this batch - if they can do 2 days this batch that will mean more matches than last month. Of course I'd love them to get into November (that would include ME!!) but anything beyond the 27th would be good news and the 31st would be great (but as it's so big I think it's unlikely). Unless they finish the 31st I won't be able to count on being included in the following batch due to the size of the 31st.

So I'm still waiting in Wales, trying not to get my hopes up - succeeding at the moment but unsure I'll be able to maintain my 'sensible' head over my heart!

COMMENTS AND FEELINGS

. . . thanks to all of you who have left comments, it's good to know that others understand how I'm feeling.

Referrals have started to arrive and so far only families with LIDs of 25th and 26th have been contacted, it's looking very likely that this month has only got 2 days of referrals. That's just made the wait another 29 days longer (31 days since the last batch, only 2 days matched). Ugh.

So how am I feeling? Well, I've had visitors for the last two days and it was good to be busy and distracted. I know that I'm powerless in this part of the process. I listened to rumours and got my hopes up - but even without raised hopes I would have been severely disappointed, just 2 days. Despite the disappointment I will continue to read the rumours, if nothing else they give me hope and give me a place to be where people innately understand how I feel - there's something reassuring about being with people who simply understand the situation from the inside. I'm disappointed for everyone in the process 2 days is a blow.

2 days is the least they have done in the time I have been following referral stats. It could be because they were matching the babies whose paperwork was completed the previous month - a short month due to the Chinese New Year holiday - i.e. less time for paperwork, less available babies. This theory would be backed up by the pattern of referrals from last year. This is probably the best theory for such a low level of referrals as it would be an unusual situation that won't be replicated in the months to come, hopefully.

One of the problems recently seems to be the lack of information in advance of referrals arriving - the sources in China must have been warned or moved as they seem to have dried up. I don't know why this is as I can't see that they caused a problem.

As soon as the cutoff is known, I start looking forward to the next batch. In the old days (12 months or more ago) I would virtually automatically know that I would be next as I'm the sixth day in the queue (and 2 of the days ahead are minute weekend days) - sadly those days are gone and the process is much slower at the moment. There is a major holiday in China at the beginning of May, so hopefully referrals will arrive before that, hopefully. I'm 6 days from the front of the queue - will I make the cut next time? No-one knows, the 27th is a very big day and the 31st is a HUGE day, added to the fact that they only did 2 days this month, probably not but maybe? Arrgh.

Not only do I want my baby now, or if not now, as soon as possible, but there are other negative implications if my referral does not arrive next month. But there is a silver lining - the longer time before referrals the more likely travel will be delayed until the summer holidays, this would at least be convenient for school.

So all in all, my feelings haven't changed much - sad, confused, bewildered with a glimmer of hope that will one day be my baby.

REFERRALS ARE COMING IN

. . . but so far only to 26th October - it looks like the ghastly 2 days of LIDs rumour may well be true. Ugh and VERY RUDE WORDS.

This could mean I have several more months to wait. I'm probably 6 days from the front of the queue (and 2 of those are weekend days) - but at the current (rumoured) rate that could mean no referral until JULY.

You know what I think - and it ain't pretty.

There's nothing GOOD about this Friday.

MORE NEWS, NOT GOOD

The latest rumours from the US are that the 26th will be the cutoff - only 3 days (Corrected by my friend, ONLY 2 DAYS, blame the 'nappy brain').

This is the worst scenario yet and could mean no referral this month OR NEXT MONTH.

I think it's looking more likely that we may have definite news tomorrow.

I'm so numb now I don't know how I'm feeling, except that it's not good.

MORE CHANCES, MORE RUMOURS

THE BAD NEWS
Late Wednesday night rumours from the States again hint at an October cutoff date (but this time the 30th) - so I would have another month to wait.

THE BETTER NEWS (sort of)
There are a few US agencies reporting that referrals are in the air - so likely to arrive today or tomorrow. It would be good to know (one way or the other) before Easter.

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH, THE JOURNEY'S SLOWING AGAIN

I've been busy today, and had a better day because I was busy.

But now the latest rumour is the cutoff is the 26th - that's just 3 days.

Now I'm going to eat the 3 easter bunnies I just bought for other people - pass the sick bag, quick!

STATUS UPDATE

. . . no news yesterday - which was partly anticipated as we knew that referrals wouldn't have been posted from China on Sunday.

It's more possible that they could arrive today (compared to yesterday) but I think that tomorrow or Friday are more likely.

There are still some rumours circulating - several suggesting that referrals won't arrive until next week and still suggesting that October might not be finished - I don't like either of these rumours.

So the high state of alert and emotion continues, between us 3CMum and I are watching rumours for each other so that we can go out without missing the major events! To those of you who think that this is over reacting - this part of the journey is probably a bit like during overdue to give birth, but with less certainties.

THE ROLLERCOASTER CONTINUES

The adoption process is often described as a rolllercoaster - because of the highs and lows in the process. For me it's more like the Disney ride 'Space Mountain' - because it all takes place in the dark! (yes, I know the animation is a koala on a skateboard - I couldn't find one about a rollercoaster!)

Behind the jokes is bad news. Referrals didn't arrive yesterday and rumours are now going down - they may not have even been posted, they may not have even got to the end of Oct, I might not be included and we still don't know when we'll find out which rumours are accurate and what the real situation is, ugh.

A WARNING

It may not happen today at all!

At the moment the adoption community is only working with rumours, the rumours could be wrong and, of course, I might not be included.

TRYING TO KEEP BUSY

It's 8:25am.

I'm waiting for information about the cutoff - it will probably come from the USA. I probably won't hear anything until mid afternoon or later. It's going to be a long day, a very long day.

DID YOU GET THE MESSAGE?

I could be next!!!!!!!!!

TURMOIL

Latest rumours suggest that early November will be in the next batch of referrals and that referrals should arrive next week, probably early next week.

That would mean I'd be in, referral flying and tears flowing as I type!

All with the usual proviso that they could still say no - also that there could be a hitch due to additional paperwork last summer (this could delay my referral).

This is as much as I know at the moment, I will post more when there is more definite news - hopefully soon but probably not til Monday, it's going to be a long weekend.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NEXT BATCH

. . . if, according to RQ's prediction, they only get to the 31st - that would be 5 working days and 2 weekend days. CR*P.

Just my luck - the end of the wait seems like it may be even more nerve wracking than the rest of it (and not just by virtue of getting to the end).

RUDE WORDS, RUDE WORDS, RUDE WORDS - LOTS OF THEM.

RUMOURED CUTOFF?

. . . seems pretty sure that the cutoff this month will be the 24th of October.

For those of you not following the adoption rollercoaster as closely as me, the 24th may seem good - but it's actually only 7 working days and 4 weekend days.

The Rumour Queen (number cruncher, rumour collator and preservor of my sanity) predicted the 23rd as a bad case scenario which would then lead to the next cutoff being the 31st - obviously this is not good news for me. The 31st is a huge day - so you can't presume that as they exceeded the prediction by a day that that will feed in to extending the following cutoff by a day. So the 1st will be on the cusp and the next month or two are going to be even more nerve wracking!

B*mm*r.

RUMOUR QUEEN

. . . is away at the moment - officially on work, but unofficially some are wondering if she's in China adopting her second child. I believed her explanation and the second scenario never crossed my mind - until someone on my DTC group began speculating!

Lots of my IA friends are suffering withdrawal symptoms - particularly those of us in the UK who have no other rumour reporter. At this point I hold my hand up and join the crowd - I'm with all of those suffering in RQ's absence - here's hoping she is in China, otherwise this will happen again in a while (maybe 'shock, horror' during a referral period!)

There is a rumour of referrals getting as far as the 30th October - that would mean I was definitely next. Moderators on RQ are saying this has been reported but the source isn't one of the most reliable ones - that's why I need the RQ back, her opinion is reliable and measurable.

RQ's LAST ANALYSIS

Following last week's referrals, the RQ has been number crunching again.

The results for me are:
Bad Case - May
Mid Case - April
Good Case - April.

I think and hope that it will be April - that's what I've based the new ticker on (I took a date in the middle of the month - towards the end of the week). It's a slightly optimistic timescale - assuming Mid or Good Case scenarios, but it's only an estimate.